Trade lead(2)
Publication date:2020-10-21 Heyond Cabinet Reading:20

 

 

Trade lead

Intriguingly, after the new deal was announced it refrained from mentioning any numerical targets. Whether that is because it is embarrassed about having been forced into such a concession, or because the purchase agreements are not as solid as American officials suggest, will become clear only when the text is eventually published.

The Chinese do, however, seem to have made some welcome promises. Mr. Lighthizer boasted of commitments on intellectual property similar to, albeit narrower than, those in the USMCA, a recently agreed trade deal between America, Mexico and Canada. He also said the Chinese authorities had agreed not to ask multinationals to hand over technology as part of the process of securing a licence to do business-an issue central to America's first tariff action in the trade war.

Jake Parker of the US-China Business Council, a lobby group for American companies operating in China, notes that such tech transfer was the biggest concern for many of his group's members. The Chinese, for their part, insisted that their promises were in line with their broader economic strategy of opening up, and would improve the business environment. Indeed, cynics will note that many of the reforms being chalked up to the deal had already started, raising questions about whether the nearly two-year-long trade battle has made much difference. Until deal is signed, the threat of renewed trade hostilities remains. And even the enforcement rules will cause anxiety.

Mr Lighthizer, hardly an independent arbiter, will have the final say over whether China has broken its commitments. He will be able to consider anonymous complaints by American companies. This fixes a real problem-fear of retaliation that leads executives to hold their tongues. But it also risks the Chinese feeling that they are being accused of misdeeds they can neither verify nor easily fix.

Both sides said that the success of the first phase of talks would determine success in the second, which would presumably unlock further tariff cuts. Mr Lighthizer spoke of climbing a mountain a bit at a time. But the summit is still distant.